VT Markets has forecast that the price of gold could rise up to $6000 per ounce this year, as it predicted the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by at least 50 basis points.
In its “bull case” for commodities this year, to which it assigns a 35% probability, the broker estimated the price of gold would rise to between $5000-$6000/oz this year, from its current level of around
In its “base case”, which is assigned a 50% probability, the gold price is forecast to stabilise at above $4,300-$4,500/oz.
The higher forecast is far above mainstream analyst consensus, according to the latest survey by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), which has prices rising around $1300 over 2026 to $4740/oz.
“Gold stands at the centre of this new cycle, becoming not only a hedge but a primary performance asset,” said Senior Market Analyst Nayel Al-Jawabra.
“With gold already pushing beyond $4,300 per ounce, the broader market is adjusting to a world in which precious metals are no longer defensive tools— they are structural return drivers.”
It added that the precocious metal has now become a “structural component” of global allocation models, rather than a safe haven asset.
The price predictions, laid out in the broker’s 2026 Global Markets Outlook, are tied to the firm’s forecasts for Fed base rates this year.
In its “base case” US outlook, VT Markets expects the Fed to cut rates between 50 and 75 basis points, with two separate cuts anticipated. In its “bull case”, it forecasts a 100bps cut,
Even a 50bps cut is significantly above current analyst consensus and the Fed’s own stated intentions, however, which forecast a single 25bps cut this year.
“2026 is expected to be a year defined by selectivity”, said VT Markets Global Strategy Operations Lead Ross Maxwell.
“AI, defence, industrials, energy infrastructure and healthcare offer compelling opportunities, while stretched valuations and geopolitical risks remain active headwinds.”
