The Netherlands Gambling Authority (KSA) has ordered prediction market platform Polymarket to stop serving Dutch users immediately or face fines of €420,000 per week, capped at €840,000 over two weeks.
The regulator said Polymarket, operated by Adventure One QSS Inc., is offering unlicensed “games of chance” in violation of the Dutch Betting and Gaming Act. If the initial penalties fail to force compliance, the KSA said it would pursue larger, turnover-based fines.
Election betting triggered scrutiny
The enforcement action follows months of investigation prompted by Polymarket’s popularity during the October 2025 Dutch parliamentary elections. Dutch users wagered more than $32 million on election outcomes, including over $27 million on which party would win the most parliamentary seats and $16 million on the next prime minister.
To confirm the platform was accessible to Dutch residents, a KSA supervisor placed a test bet on D66 leader Rob Jetten. No geo-blocking or other barriers were in place.
The KSA estimated that around 50,000 people in the Netherlands searched for Polymarket in December 2025 alone, a figure it considers an undercount of the actual user base.
“Prediction markets are on the rise, including in the Netherlands. These types of companies offer bets that are not permitted in our market under any circumstances, not even by licence holders,” said Ella Seijsener, KSA Director of Licensing and Supervision.
Seijsener raised concerns about the integrity of democratic processes. “Besides the social risks of these kinds of predictions, for example the potential influence on elections, we conclude that this constitutes illegal gambling,” she said.
Broader regulatory battle
The Dutch action comes as several jurisdictions debate how to classify prediction markets. In the United States, several states have moved to ban the platforms, while the Trump administration filed a court brief on February 17 backing federal jurisdiction over prediction markets.
Polymarket already restricts access in several European countries, including Germany, France, Italy, and the UK. The KSA noted, however, that users in restricted jurisdictions often bypass blocks using VPNs.
The platform has not publicly responded to the Dutch order.
